We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?
Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:
9% believe a recession will occur this year
50% believe it will occur in 2020
35% believe it will occur in 2021
6% believe it will occur after 2021
When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:
Stock Market Correction
How might the recession impact real estate?
Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.
As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.
On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.
As a homeowner, it’s always tempting to dream about the next big project you’re going to tackle. The possibilities are endless. Should I renovate? Should I refinance? Should I stay? Should I move? The list goes on and on.
In today’s housing market, it’s actually a great time to shift your thoughts toward selling your house and moving up into the home of your dreams. Here’s why:
Inventory is on the rise, but there’s still an overall shortage of houses for sale (less than a 6-month supply found in a more normal market), so homes are going under contract quickly. In fact, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Realtors® Confidence Index Survey reports that right now homes are only staying on the market for an average of 27 days. That’s less than one month, an even more accelerated pace from the 36-day trend we saw last spring.The same report also indicates there are more interested buyers than active sellers today, which is one of the big factors driving home prices higher. This power combination provides an ideal environment for sellers aiming to close a quick sale and earn a big return as we wrap up the summer season.
There’s still time to make a move before the school year starts and the fall weather sets in. Maybe it’s time to make a change. Reach out to a local real estate professional in your area to determine if selling now is the right decision for your family.
Many of the questions currently surrounding the real estate industry focus on home prices and where they are heading. The most recent Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) helps target these projected answers.
The average annual appreciation will be 3.2% over the next 5 years
The cumulative appreciation will be 16.8% by 2023
Even experts representing the most “bearish” quartile of the survey project a cumulative appreciation of over 6.7% by 2023
What does this mean for you?
A substantial portion of family wealth comes from home equity. As the value of a family’s home (an asset) increases, so does their equity.
Using the projections from the HPES, here is a look at the potential equity a family could earn over the next five years if they purchased a $250,000 home in January of 2019:Based on gains in home equity, their family wealth could increase by $42,000 over that five-year period.
If you don’t yet own a home, now may be the time to purchase. Owning or moving up to your dream home could allow you to ride the increase in equity of a growing asset.
The current housing landscape presents greater home values, low interest rates, and high buyer demand. All of these factors point to the strong market forecasted to continue throughout the rest of the year.
There is, however, one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: an overall lack of housing inventory. Buyer demand naturally increases during the summer months, but the current supply is not keeping up.
Here is a look at what a few industry experts have to say:
“We’re not seeing as many new listings come up on the market…It was only 18 months ago that the number of homes for sale hit its lowest level in recorded history and sparked the fiercest competition among buyers we’ve ever seen.”
If you’re thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong during a period when there is very little competition, ideally leading to a quick sale and a great return on your investment.
Whether you are a first-time buyer or looking to move up to the home of your dreams, now is a great time to purchase a home. Here are three major reasons to buy today.
Many people focus solely on price when talking about home affordability. Since home prices have appreciated throughout the past year, they assume homes are less affordable. However, affordability is determined by three components:
Mortgage Interest Rate
Prices are up, but so are wages – and interest rates have recently dropped dramatically (see #2 below). As a result, the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Affordability Index report revealed that homes are MORE affordable throughout the country today than they were a year ago.
“All four regions saw an increase in affordability from a year ago. The South had the biggest gain in affordability of 6.9%, followed by the West with a gain of 6.0%. The Midwest had an increase of 5.8%, followed by the Northeast with the smallest gain of 1.8%.”
2. Mortgage Interest Rates
Mortgage rates have dropped almost a full point after heading toward 5% last fall and early winter. Currently, they are below 4%.Additionally, Fannie Mae recently predicted the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage will be 3.7% in the second half of 2019. That compares to a 4.4% average rate in the first quarter and 4% in the second quarter.
With mortgage rates remaining near historic lows, Fannie Mae and others have increased their forecasts for housing appreciation for the rest of the year. If home price gains are about to re-accelerate, buying now rather than later makes financial sense.
3. Increase Family Wealth
Homeownership has always been recognized as a sensational way to build long-term family wealth. A new report by ATTOM Data Solutions reveals:
“U.S. homeowners who sold in the second quarter of 2019 realized an average home price gain since purchase of $67,500, up from an average gain of $57,706 in Q1 2019 and up from an average gain of $60,100 in Q2 2018. The average home seller gain of $67,500 in Q2 2019 represented an average 33.9 percent return as a percentage of original purchase price.”
The longer you delay purchasing a home, the longer you are waiting to put the power of home equity to work for you.
With affordability increasing, mortgage rates decreasing, and home values about to re-accelerate, it may be time to talk with a local real estate professional to determine if buying now makes sense for your family.
Shifting trends and industry-leading research are pointing toward some valuable projections about the status of the housing market for the rest of the year.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling, or if you just want to know what experts are saying is on the horizon, here are the top three things to put on your radar as we head into the coming months:
Home prices are appreciating at a more normal rate: Home prices have been appreciating for about ten years now. Experts at the Home Price Expectation Survey, Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae are forecasting continued growth throughout the next year, although it should be leveling-off to normal appreciation (3.6%), as we move into 2020.
Interest rates are low: Over the past 30 years, the average mortgage rate in the United States has been 8.27%, and rates even peaked as high as 18% in the 1980s. Today, at 3.81%, the rate is considerably lower than the historical 30-year average. Although experts predict it may climb into the low 4% range in the near future, that’s still remarkably lower than our running average, suggesting a great time to get more for your money over the life of your loan.
“An interesting thing is the widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”
In fact, during 3 of the 5 last U.S. recessions, housing prices actually appreciated:
With prices appreciating and low interest rates available, it’s a perfect time to buy or sell a home. Reach out to a local real estate professional to see how you can take the next step in the exciting journey of homeownership.
“Lower mortgage rates, higher wages and more homes for sale have helped counteract rising home prices, and ultimately, made it so that buyers are able to afford more than last year.”
“Our outlook implies 4% growth for the remaining months of the year, predicated on…more supply than last year, the decline in mortgage rates, moderating home price appreciation and improving affordability.”
“Moderating home price appreciation and attractive mortgage rates continue to support affordability, particularly as home builders are now paying more attention to the entry-level portion of the housing market.”
“At the moment, some observers suggest the housing market is indeed headed for a slowdown. But no need to panic — experts say the financial and economic factors that were in play during the big crash a decade ago don’t exist today.”
The housing market will be stronger for the rest of 2019. If you’d like to know more about your specific market, contact a local real estate professional to find what’s happening in your area.